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Breaking into the world’s most-visited art institution in broad daylight, taking eight pieces of priceless Napoleonic jewellery and vanishing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, executed for international notoriety and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Experts who observe trends in global cultural theft, however, see Sunday morning’s heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a series of quick-hit thefts focused more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or materials than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a pattern that has appeared over the last decade in Europe, the UK and the US. The location, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why thieves who want to steal valuable jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “The answer is simple: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is more secure.”

A series of aggressive jewellery shop thefts mean that many outlets have beefed up their protection in recent years, with armed guards on their premises and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Museums, on the other hand, look vulnerable, in part because of the inherent factor of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and partly the financial situation in many western countries.

“Since Covid, governments across the world have cut back on law enforcement and the arts funding,” noted Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it shows how at risk our museums have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the objects – featuring jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the crown of Empress Eugénie featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the robbers left by the street on their way out – has inevitably been compared with the historical theft of the famous painting from the same museum, performed by the Italian handyman Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better points of reference may be the recent theft of valuables from a German institution worth over €113m, the taking of a £4.75m valuable object from a UK landmark the that year, the recent robbery of a large gold coin from a European museum or even a series of thefts of sports memorabilia from American institutions.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would struggle to sell them. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the legal marketplace”, said Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They would be immediately recognised, particularly given the cultural authorities has published photos of the pieces. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see documentation establishing proper ownership before handling such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, museums were often reluctant to go public about the disappearance of well-known works of art and would remain quiet out of shame. These days, as art thefts are more widely publicised, the keeping and selling of stolen art is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes valueless, and you have to devise a scheme to conceal it, maybe by passing it around dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to collect a reward.”

For similar reasons, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the theft had been commissioned. “Stolen to order is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It's global news and in all the media. If you buy this, if you are apprehended, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your children.”

Altering stolen works by dismantling or reshaping does lower the value. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with considerable risk because modern methods give stones a larger and brighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or barter the price down for a concealment.

Crucially, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the evidence of the crime. “I suspect that the robbers will try to take the items to places with diamond expertise like a country, India or even as close as a city, and find someone to cut out the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the institution, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be released next month pointing out “considerable” and “persistent” slow progress in modernizing equipment and observing that security cameras were lacking in multiple areas. But specialists say displaying precious items in older structures with a constant flow of guests comes with dangers that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Historic buildings are much harder to secure,” explained Erin Thompson. “They often have nice big street-facing windows that allows for criminals to escape, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you can’t fit them with secure windows.”

The most solid protective measures for structures should be conceptualised “as a stronghold”, noted a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to deter intruders.”

Modern buildings are equipped with advanced external CCTV cameras or in-built vibration sensors that alert about a broken glass in real time, but historic institutions may be reluctant to uglify their exteriors. Detection devices can be hard to fit to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be disabled during the day as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The timing of the Louvre raid, which took place between morning hours in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either opening or closing times. It’s often when guards rotate and prior to the museum is crowded who effectively act as extra protection.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more rapidly and effectively, but it has also given robbers new methods with which to bypass protections. In the city, the thieves reached the museum’s first-floor window with a vehicle-mounted ladder and cut through a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the discussion in the country about the historic building had primarily focused on visitor management in recent years, and less on security.

The institution has an in-house brigade of about 50 full-time emergency personnel, but their mission is mainly to safeguard the collection from blazes and water damage. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all depends on political will and money, and at present the nation simply has no money.”