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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.